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A Few Quick Take-Aways

A short blog on the election; it will take a little while to fully digest the results. But some results seem clear and important to note.

Obviously, the major news of the day is the Democratic resurgence in the House, with Democrats winning back the majority they lost so spectacularly in 2010. While the size of the wave will not approach the classic elections of 1974, 1994, 2006 or 2010, the significance should not be underestimated.

Not only did Democrats win an impressive majority of the popular vote for House candidates nationally (although the electoral significance is diminished by population concentration and gerrymandering which diminished the number of seats won), but also they won across the breadth of the country.  Democratic candidates picked up reliably Republican seats in states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Virginia, and there will also be Democrats representing traditionally red seats in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and South Carolina.

Significant recognition for this victory needs to go to House Democratic strategists who recruited and financed many of these winners. But credit also goes to many of the candidates themselves who, like those in earlier waves, launched themselves as neophytes into the electoral battle with minimal experience, resources or expectations of victory. Certainly one of the major takeaways of the evening is the addition of a broad diversity of new members — LGBT, youth, Native Americans, veterans and, of course, a record number of women. Democrats clearly have established themselves as the party that looks like America — the third majority-minority caucus —  while Republicans shrink further into the traditionalism of white male politicians.

Now the question is what Democrats will do with this majority. The first step is to select the leadership. While I am no neutral party on the subject, it seems obvious that the new majority will pick Nancy Pelosi for speaker. With battles looming on every front with an volatile president and combative Senate, not to mention the challenges of managing an historically diverse Democratic Caucus, deposing the proven Pelosi, who just led the party to victory, for an untested replacement would be a remarkably pointless, self-inflicted wound. There is time for the next generation to learn during the coming Congress and prepare themselves to assume leadership; Pelosi herself seemed to signal a recognition of coming change by elevating newer members over the past two years and in several recent statements.

But the 116th Congress convenes in two months, and it is going to be a challenging one.  Democrats will need both discipline and strategic skills to promote a positive agenda that keeps the Caucus together, differentiates the party from Republicans, responds to the voters’ expectations for results rather than simply for retribution. The further edges of the Caucus must  recognize that to keep many of the seats won last night, the Caucus must embrace pragmatism over purity, because without the majority, all the passion in the world cannot be realized. No one can provide that experienced and steady leadership on January 3 except Pelosi, and Democrats are unlikely to come to any other conclusion when they make their leadership decisions later this month.


The Democrats’ Dilemma

Although the crucial mid-term elections are a mere two weeks away, it never takes long before most political conversations turn to the question of the 2020 Democratic nominee. So while the outcome of 2018’s contests is still very much up in the air, let’s focus on an election still two years away.

Well, of course, 2020 is not two years away, except on the calendar. It is two weeks away, because as soon as the 2018 results are known (and they may not be on November 6th because of close contests and run-offs), every pundit will scrutinize the tea leaves to assess whose White House aspirations were helped or hindered by the mid-terms.

Many people seem distressed that there is no obvious Democratic frontrunner and seem worried that such uncertainty dictates that the nominee in 2020 will be unable to pull the party together. Such unity will be needed to defeat the almost inevitable Republican nominee, Donald Trump (unless he has become tired of winning all the time and decides to retire). My two-word answer to those worries: Barack Obama. In the era of social media and cable TV, the most unknown personality can be catapulted into notoriety in a matter of days regardless of credibility or worthiness. Think: Michael Avenatti.  Yes, there will be a scrum of candidates, but it will be whittled down pretty quickly to a few credible (if not predictable) survivors.

This situation is far preferable to having a well-known, easily identified party leader who appears to be the inevitable nominee..  Such a person would certainly be the target of years of unrelenting criticism, second-guessing, background investigations, examination of years of voting records (if a legislator) and media undercutting. She or he might be the “front runner,” but would emerge badly scarred and weakened. Moreover, a spirited contest for the nomination is good training and tends to allow more talented and strategic candidates to emerge while weeding out those whose famous name or inevitability provided them temporary frontrunner status. (Admittedly, the process is not foolproof. Think: oh, never mind.)

But the caucus and primary process for selecting the eventual nominee can be very problematic in 2020.  It favors someone popular with the activist base that is over-represented in the nomination selection process. Almost invariably, that process selects someone on the left side of the Democrats’ ideological spectrum (although as the Clinton-Sanders race showed, not necessarily on the extreme left). In preparation for just such a battle, many of the prospective candidates are already lining up to support policies that appeal to the microcosm of voters who will select the nominee: Medicare for All, free college tuition, a reconstituted ICE and an immigration bill that includes a path to citizenship, a massive jobs program, subsidized student loans, as well as other meritorious policies that are vulnerable to the easiest Republican attacks of irresponsibility on spending, big government and deficit creation that spells tax increases. Leftist candidates like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have been notably vague on how to pay the multi-trillion dollar cost of these initiatives. That silence may work in safe Democratic congressional districts, but it will not cut it on the presidential stage.

Defeating Donald Trump in 2020 is going to depend on Democrats meeting some very basic strategic objectives:

  • don’t alienate independents and disenchanted Republicans who might be willing to entrust Democrats to reverse course on some of the dangerous wackiness of the last two years;
  • figure out how to win back some of the white, blue collar vote that swung from Obama’s “change” message to Trump’s “revenge” appeal;
  • at the same time, motivate the progressive youth and minority vote whose participation is crucial for both 2018 and 2020.

Unfortunately, these objectives may be contradictory – youth voters and alienated blue collar Democrats might have a hard time reconciling. It doesn’t take many of them to walk away from the party to cost Democrats crucial states and the 2020 election, as we all painfully know.

Selecting a nominee who has a broad appeal beyond the base will be the Democratic challenge, and it may become more difficult due to changes in the selection procedure. In the troublesome Mid-West this year, several mainstream Democrats defeated more liberal challengers in gubernatorial primaries; since those are states any Democratic nominee must win in 2020, it will be instructive to watch the outcome of the midterm races in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.

The DNC’s decision to pare down the influence of super-delegates at the 2020 convention in order to eliminate checks on the popular will was, in my view, a bad idea. Professionals who understand how to win elections, not just excite crowds, should be engaged in the strategic decision of picking a nominee if it appears the caucus/primary process has gone off the rails. And with Democrats, it just might. Super-delegates should not thwart the public will as expressed in caucuses and primaries, but their engagement in the process cautions potential nominees to heed party as well as personal best interests.

California’s decision to move its primary from June to the beginning of March will benefit candidates who have appeal to the more liberal end of the spectrum, which includes a few California possibilities like Kamala Harris and Eric Garcetti. But California is a reliably Democratic state regardless of the nominee, unlike Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin, to pick a few states arbitrarily. One rationale for beginning the nominating process in small states like Iowa and New Hampshire is to allow unknowns a chance to show their stuff, win an early contest, and thereby compete in raising funds needed to compete in costlier states. It will be difficult for lesser-known candidates to raise the money needed in California so early in the process, which may well sink their chances before they get out of the starting gate.

So the real challenge facing Democrats for 2020 is not whether there will be a nominee, but whether the process created for selecting that nominee is capable of selecting someone with the breadth of appeal needed to compete against a wily demagogue. We will begin to be able to answer that question on November 7.



Picking Less Partisan Candidates

September is over, and with it summer, Labor Day, the celebration of National Potato Month … and the 2018 primary election season. Just two months before the November election that could decide the nation’s political course for the next two years, candidates have finally been selected in a process that began in some states all the way back in March!

This is, therefore, a good time to ask: are primaries, and in some cases, conventions, really the best way to select our candidates for public office? Or like many other kinds of reform, does voter involvement contribute to the very partisan atmosphere that many voters – although not necessarily those participating in candidate selection —  decry, promoting non-participation in the political process?

Instinctively, most people endorse the idea of voters picking their party’s candidate. The previous method, party selection, was often portrayed as occurring in the “smoke-filled back room” of some creaky party headquarters by some non-representative boss and his stooges. Progressive reformers in the early 1900s promoted the primary, like the referendum, initiative and recall, as modernizations that would take power away from presumably corrupt politicians – party leaders and legislatures – and instead empower the voters to choose candidates, permit direct voter decision-making on policies, and remove officeholders without waiting for an election.

The problem with primaries, especially in a more partisan era where voters have pretty much sorted themselves ideologically into the two major parties, is that the so-called reform has become a major contributor to the problem that discourages moderate voters from participating in politics: partisanship.

Better informed and more highly motivated people are more likely to vote than their less informed and less motivated counterparts. In a general election, the rate of participation varies from around 40% in most off-years (like 2018) to 60% in a presidential election year. So right off the bat, a substantial percentage of voters – disproportionately the less ideologically rigid – opt out of influencing selection of public officials. Moreover, there is a significant drop-off rate for down-ballot candidates, so even those who do come out to vote for president, for example, lose interest while in the voting booth (or wherever they vote) by the time they get to, say, city council or school board.

But these are impressive turn-out rates when compared to primaries. A new study by the Bipartisan Policy Center has just found that while participation in the 2018 primaries for federal office increased from the level four years ago to 46 million from 32 million, the percent of eligible voters participating rose only to 19.9% from a miserable 14.3% in 2014. (Both Democratic and Republican participation increased.) Combine this paltry turnout with the fact that only 8 states have run-offs that ensure that the party nominee has received a majority of votes, and the result is that those appearing on the fall ballot as nominees have invariably been chosen by a fraction of the eligible voters in their districts or states, and that fraction, almost without exception, tends to be more ideologically extreme than voters overall.

Politicians know who elects them, and it should come as little surprise that most, in most cases, they will appeal to that select sliver of voters whom they must satisfy. This behavior is true not only at election time, but when deciding how to cast votes in committee and on the floor, or when urging party leaders not to bring issues before the Congress at all.

It is difficult, of course, to argue for a less participatory mechanism for selecting candidates, although there is a healthy discussion underway about whether the political system might not function more effectively were there less transparency. Consider Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania last year; he won a traditionally Republican district because he veered away from the Democratic party’s position on a host of issues, enhancing his appeal to general election voters. Had the nominee been selected in a primary dominated by party activists instead of by the local organization, Lamb might well have been defeated by a more liberal rival who would have lost the special election.

A more salable strategy than arguing for a return to the smoke-filled back room might be to find ways to expand participation in primaries so that a more diverse cohort of voters selects candidates. I, for one, am no fan of open primaries where non-party registrants are given the ability to intrude into the choice of nominees; at a minimum, those selecting the candidate should demonstrate sufficient fealty to the party to register as members before assuming that power.

Boosting primary (or even general election) participation is tricky, but there are several fairly easy ways to reform primaries to produce candidates who reflect a broader swath of voter sentiment.

  • First, the no-brainer: get rid of the restrictive voting rules used to purge, intimidate and discourage voter (and especially minority voter) participation.
  • Expand opportunities for voting by mail and early voting rather than limiting voting to a single day.
  • Consolidate primaries so there is greater awareness of “Primary Day” as there is “Election Day.” Instead of stringing the process out from March to September, pick a day for national primaries that makes sense – I would argue for immediately after Labor Day so nominees are chosen based on issues as they exist in proximity to the general election, but some may argue that doesn’t leave enough time for lesser known nominees to challenge incumbents.
  • Lastly, provide for either tiered or ranked choice voting, or for runoffs, so that nominees must appeal more widely for votes to diminish the incentive to reflect only partisan and extreme positions.

It will be difficult to implement such reforms since, of course, the exisiting system works well for those currently in office, who have minimal incentive to experiment with innovation. Still, a vigorous pubic discussion about how we select candidates can help promote the changes we need to produce officeholders who embrace collaboration rather than confrontation as a way to seek office and serve voters.




The Limitations of Leadership

The Senate Judiciary Committee’s confirmation hearings on Brett Kavanaugh are revealing the extent to which Chairman Chuck Grassley and other Republicans will invent unprecedented procedures to shield the controversial nominee. But the criticism aimed at Democrats by the activist base, for the failure to challenge the nomination with sufficient vigor also demonstrates the base’s disapproval that Democrats will surely confront should they win control of the House in November.

Several liberal groups have launched a pointed attack on Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, accusing him of pulling his punches in the Kavanaugh confirmation battle by failing to ensure unanimous opposition to the nominee by the Senate minority. The frenzied tone of their condemnations reveals a remarkably uninformed understanding of the powers and limitations of congressional leadership.

This purist insistence will present real challenges should Democrats win back a House majority in less than two months. The hard left will claim credit, doubtless employing the false syllogism common to those who interpret events as resulting from their actions: the howling dog claiming credit for the moon rising comes to mind. True, some Democrats may well win their seats because of a higher-than-average turnout of young and minority voters who historically underperform in off-year elections; but most of the seats that would account for Democrats reaching the 218 majority level will be won in swing (if not Republican) districts whose new members will not be taking their cues from Alexandra Ocasio Cortez or Bernie Sanders.

In Schumer’s case, thirteen progressive groups sent a letter this week informing the New York senator “Your job as Senate Democratic leader is to lead your caucus in complete opposition” to Kavanaugh’s nomination.” They tell Schumer “You are failing us” because not all Democrats have declared their intent to vote against the nominee. Asserting (dubiously) that Democrats often offer “little to no fight on critical issues with enormous, long-term consequences for all Americans,” as lead critic Elizabeth Beavers of Indivisible declared, the signatories conclude that Schumer’s performance is “not the leadership we need. If Schumer were serious about winning on Kavanaugh, we would have had 49 ‘no‘ votes weeks ago. It’s his job to get it done.” Anything less would be “a massive failure of your leadership.”

Beavers and Indivisible do not explain what “winning” means in this context: defeating Kavanaugh, securing all Democratic votes in opposition (but still losing the fight), or something else.  While it would be terrific if all Democrats vote against Kavanaugh, the Republicans likely have the votes to confirm him without a single Democratic “yea.” The ability of several vulnerable senators like John Tester, Claire McCaskill and Heide Heitkamp to survive their re-election battles in heavily Republican states – which would enable them to fight in the 116th Congress on a host of crucial issues (including the Affordable Care Act, which all Democrats did vote to sustain) — might be enhanced by a “yea” vote. If Beavers or Indivisible wants to duke it out with those senators, fine; but deal with the consequences of pointlessly losing seats that might well make it tougher for Democrats to regain the Senate majority in 2020.

But don’t confuse those senators’ self-interest with Schumer’s performance. Congressional leaders lack the awesome powers that the critics expect Schumer to wield. They are elected to serve their members, not to govern and discipline them. Even Nancy Pelosi, who would never grant her members a pass on key votes (unlike some other members of the leadership) would not punish them overtly, especially if the issue involved a matter of conscience or political survivability. When John Boehner did punish several of his flock who opposed his candidacy for Speaker by removing them from their plum committee assignments, his standing suffered, not theirs.

In the case of the Senate, the powers of the Leader are notoriously thin. As Harry Reid used to bemoan even when he enjoyed a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority, he had to win every Democrat to overcome GOP filibuster threats (whereas the House leadership, without any such super-majority threshold, could afford to lose dozens of Democrats and still pass legislation).

“The leader of the Senate relies on two prerogatives, neither of which is constitutionally or statutorily guaranteed,” Republican leader Howard Baker once noted, “the right of prior recognition …  and the right to schedule the Senate’s business. These, together with the reliability of his commitment and whatever power of personal persuasion one brings to the job, are all the tools a Senate leader has.” Longtime Democratic Leader Mike Mansfield offered a similar observation. “I’m not the leader really,” the Montanan observed. “My Democratic colleagues are the leaders. My job is just keeping the party together, smoothing over the differences, keeping tempers, and trying to achieve the possible despite the differences inherent in the party.”

If the signatories of the letter to Schumer take out marginal Democrats for casting a vote without consequence (assuming all Republicans support Kavanaugh, as they surely will), they will have to assume responsibility for undermining Democratic chances for achieving a majority anytime soon. In their spare time under such circumstances, which they will have since there won’t be any need to lobby Congress for progressive legislation, they might read up on some basic information about the nature of congressional coalitions and the limited powers of congressional leaders. In the meantime, they should avoid sounding like Tea Partiers who delight in assaulting their own leaders instead of figuring out how to pass the legislation tens of millions of their supporters elected them to approve.


Democrats: Stop Parroting GOP Talking Points

The dog days of August have arrived (no pun intended with respect to President Trump’s disgraceful Omarosa misogynist insult), and the topic of the week seems to be whether Nancy Pelosi should pack it in after a decade and a half as the House’s top Democrat.

As Pelosi’s chief of staff for 8 years, including the 4 years she served as Speaker I acknowledge that I am not completely objective on the subject, and for that reason, I have avoided weighing in. But I am asked the question so frequently that I have decided that I probably ought to use DOMEocracy to put it on the table.  So here it is.

I have been through winning and losing with Pelosi. While I am not privy to her current thinking, I would be shocked if she were privately obsessing over the leadership election four months down the road that will involve an unknown cohort of new and returning members. “If you don’t have 218 votes,” she famously says, “we are just having a conversation.” Pelosi doubtless will turn her attention to the leadership race when the time and circumstances are suitable. Yes, she knows that close to 50 Democrats, most of them non-incumbents, have said they will not vote for her for Speaker. Right now, as she told the New York Timesover the weekend, she isn’t asking for candidates to support her; her message to them is, “Just win, baby.”

It is hardly surprising that Republicans should demonize a leader who has bested them with such regularity, even while in the minority, let alone one who genuinely threatens their continued hold on power. They similarly sought to stigmatize Tip O’Neill (remember John LeBoutillier describing him as “bloated and out of control”?), Dick Gephardt, Tom Foley and Jim Wright, whom they actually brought down. It is a safe bet they wouldn’t go any lighter on the next Democratic leader however young or new or brimming with “new ideas” that person might be. I don’t blame the Republicans; they have virtually nothing to show for eight years in power except two failed speakerships, historic levels of debt, legislative bumbling and a gigantic tax cut for the top 1% (not exactly the toughest bill to pass when you have a Republican majority). When you have nothing to show for your years in power, falling back on mean-spirited character assassination is par for the GOP’s course.

But I do blame Democrats who should know better than to echo the Republican  rhetoric. The sheer vacuousness of the complaints – “We need new leadership … Ryan is leaving so Democrats should have new leadership, too.” “We need new (although undefined) ideas” – highlights the superficiality of the attacks.  As a survey this week indicated Pelosi, is unlikely to be the variable that turns a voter from supporting a Democrat to supporting a Republican House candidate. Most Americans probably couldn’t tell you exactly who Nancy Pelosi is or what she has done that is so reprehensible. Republican ads simply castigate her as a “liberal”; do the Democratic dissenters seriously believe their next leader will not be similarly stereotyped, even if they weren’t liberal or from San Francisco?

Let’s tease apart two of the mostly frequently heard complaints.

“Pelosi has been around too long; we need a new leaders with new ideas.”  Pelosi has remained the party leader because the Caucus chooses her — in secret votes. Politicians select leaders who help them, not just by raising money, though Pelosi certainly is a prodigious fundraiser at a time when having a prodigious fundraiser around is really helpful. (This week, sheannounced that the Democratic Campaign Committee has raised $191 million in the current cycle, $57 million more than during the 2016 election cycle.) She doles that money out to aid candidates in each of the Caucus’ half-dozen factions, most of whom don’t trust each other but generally do trust her to hear them out and promote policies that carefully balance the views of a very diverse group of people. Who else has that talent among the prospective leaders? Who has demonstrated that essential internal management skill both as Speaker and as Leader? Who else has successfully gone toe to toe on behalf of the House with Senate leaders (of both parties)? Who else has wrung concessions out of adversarial Speakers and presidents? Who else has kept a faction-ridden caucus together to pass and defend key victories like the Affordable Care Act? Critics assert the party needs a “new leader” who will pursue “new ideas.” What new ideas? The critics get suspiciously quiet after they raise the issues of age and tenure.

Pelosi hasn’t groomed anyone to take her place. Critics who make this argument (including some who evidently resent she has not designated them) fundamentally misunderstand the leadership selection process. The top person doesn’t pick a successor like a presidential nominee picks a vice president. There is a leadership ladder; people run for whip, or leader, or caucus chair or co-chair. These are competitive contests; people win and lose. Sometimes people break into that ladder as insurgents: Pelosi herself did just that in 2002, edging aside Steny Hoyer in the race for Whip. Pelosi has said recently that she is committed to “build[ing] a bridge to a new generation of leaders,” but she sells her own record short. Pelosi has been promoting junior members to key committee positions for years, helping to ensure a new generation of senior female and minority members with the crucial seniority needed to shape legislative initiatives. She also often expanded leadership meetings to include sub-caucus representatives, policy committee co-chairs, and other promising members who had not yet won leadership positions on their own like Rahm Emanuel (DCCC) and Chris Van Hollen (DCCC, Budget Chairman). Several  chose to leave before rising further in the leadership, as did other potential successors like Xavier Becerra, a former Caucus chair. Some may speculate their departures were because leadership slots were not available, but in fact, they departed because opportunities opened that were too good to pass up: the White House, the Senate.

An announcement this fall by Pelosi that she was stepping down (even if she has made such a decision) would remove her from the GOP’s cataclysmic scenario (though not from their campaign attacks), but would be incredibly damaging. A perception that she was unfairly forced out could inhibit Democratic turnout,  especially among women, particularly if it is perceived (which seems plausible) that her most strident critics are white men. Moreover, such a decision would mean that the next several months would be consumed with intra-party backbiting, deal-cutting and other distracting machinations that would undermine Goal #1: win 218 seats.

And if Democrats do prevail, as seems increasingly plausible (though by no means guaranteed), consider the response among most Democratic voters to an effort to throw out a proven woman leader who just led (and largely financed) the effort to win back control of the House as the party prepares to take on the misogynist-in-chief. Throw her out despite her extraordinary achievements as Speaker (including bare knuckle negotiations with a Republican president in her first two years) and her successful corralling of a notoriously divided Democratic Caucus? Reject her and launch the Caucus into a rancorous bloodletting amongst ambitious but unproven leadership candidates whose singular trait is their lack of experience in any of the crucial responsibilities they would have to perform on January 3, 2019?

Sounds like the GOP playbook to me.







Right on Ron

Ron Dellums was elected to Congress during my first few months in Berkeley, where I was studying for a Ph.D. in American History. For someone who had grown up very involved in electoral politics, and then had his commitment soured by the horror of Vietnam, Dellums provided an extraordinary transition into the blending of progressivism and traditional politics.

Even then, as a city councilman running for the House, Dellums was something larger than life. Both in his stunning personal appearance and riveting style of oration, Dellums could easily have either been before a movie camera or on the floor of Congress. He ended up in both places.

In a city that barely contained its utter contempt at anything smacking of conventionality, let alone the contamination that was Democratic politics in the wake of Vietnam, Dellums somehow pulled off a blending of outraged activist and serious politician. Many who were veering off to the emotionally satisfying, if electorally irrelevant, fringe were helplessly drawn to this former marine turned anti-war activist. And Dellums had a very realistic streak despite the rhetorical flourishes that gave him the unshakable nickname “Right on Ron.” When Dellums decided to make the move into national politics, he did not opt for the Peace and Freedom Party; he went after long-time incumbent Democrat Jeffrey Cohelan who had unwisely remained a supporter of the war in Southeast Asia. Not unlike the phenomenon in some House primaries this year, Dellums’ 1970 upset proved that voters, when organized and focused, can have far greater impact than the cynics would have you believe.

In his second term in Congress, Dellums and Pat Schroeder, a freshman from Colorado, requested to be appointed to the Armed Services Committee. Dellums, noting that a disproportionate percentage of Vietnam casualties were African American, asserted it was high time minorities were represented on the Committee. The chairman, F. Edward Hébert, who tolerated no criticism of his pro-war sentiments, attempted to blackball both of them, but they maneuvered their way on anyway. When Hébert was assigning seats on the dais in January 1973, he told Schroeder and Dellums, the two newest members, that they would have to share a single chair because he did not consider them full members of the committee.

Ron Dellums did not accept a second-class role. Two years later, Democrats threw Hébert out as chairman, and the incident involving Dellums and Schroeder was heavily cited as illustrative of his autocratic abuse of power. Dellums went on to serve on the committee for over two decades, often as a forceful critics of Pentagon policy and U.S. military affairs. He was a highly regarded leader in the fight against Pentagon waste including weapons systems like the MX-missile, the B-2 bomber and the Strategic Defense Initiative, and a vigorous proponent of denuclearization. There might be a greater irony in congressional history – although I doubt it — than Ron Dellums rising, through the seniority system that had once empowered segregationist white southerners, to become chairman of the committee he had once nearly been prevented from joining.

After helping to lead the successful fight against apartheid in South Africa and seeing Nelson Mandela installed as president, Dellums – to the surprise of many – retired from Congress in 1998, choosing to become a lobbyist with some clients who raised eyebrows, as many lobbyists’ client list have a tendency to do. But electoral politics proved an inescapable lure to the charismatic Dellums, and in 2006, he improbably entered the race to become mayor of Oakland to succeed the equally improbable  Jerry Brown. Shortly after he entered that race, I encountered Dellums in the Capitol and asked him what prompted him to take on such a grueling job. “Well, you know, I was introduced to speak at the convention, and I was saying, “I’m not running, I’m not running,” he recalled. “But then I got up there and there’s all this cheering, and I heard myself say, “OK, I going to run!’” And so he did.

People felt strongly about Ron, and even those with whom he strongly disagreed (perhaps other than Hébert) generally found themselves liking him. He could be blunt and cutting, he was almost always self-assured and erudite, but he also would collapse into laughs, often with an air of disbelief about the story he was relating. “Can you believe that?” he would incredulously ask when relating an inane comment or action by one of his colleagues, before regaining his slightly formal composure and seriousness.

It was a long arc, from social worker, to Berkeley city councilman, to congressman, to chairman, to mayor that Ron Dellums traveled. But throughout the journey, which ended yesterday at the age of 82, he never lost his style, his passion or his conviction. His passing is deeply mourned among his colleagues, staff and friends.

Right on, Ron.



Trump’s Outrageousness and Democratic Opportunity

O.K., pop quiz.  Which name does not belong on the following list: Aaron Burr, Aldrich Ames, Robert Hanssen, Bob Hope and Donald Trump? After Monday’s eye-popping, breath-taking display of Trumpian obsequiousness and naiveté, the answer is pretty obvious. Old Ski Nose was a patriot, through and through.

Not so Donald Trump, whose irresponsible, egomaniacal, destructive behavior of the past week might well be unparalleled in American history, certainly by anyone occupying the White House. Not only did Trump roundly insult the British Prime Minister on her own soil, but he praised her chief critic, Boris Johnson, who had just quit the Cabinet in protest. To ensure no feathers remained unruffled in the merry olde mother country, he kept the Queen waiting for over ten minutes in the hot sun, and then pushed past her as deftly as he did the prime minister of Montenegro in 2017.

Trump also brought along a bag full of insults for our allies in the European Union, or as he prefers to think of them, our “foes.” Seriously? “Foes?” Well, yes, according to Trump. “Now you wouldn’t think of the European Union, but they’re a foe,” Trump pronounced. “They’ve really taken advantage of us and many of those countries are in NATO and they weren’t paying their bills.” Never mind that many EU countries have increased their defense spending under both Obama and Trump, and have another 7 years to reach the 2% goal. Never mind that this alliance of our “foes” has maintained the peace in Europe longer and with greater stability than anytime in the last four centuries. Trump will just castigate them, in Germany’s case, for buying natural gas from Russia. (Oops, the U.S. did that last year, too! What does that make us?)

But Trump’s behavior with Russian President Putin was the cherry on the sundae of Trump’s week of diplomatic catastrophes. Not only did he conduct a private meeting with Putin which he thought went splendidly, but he also came down firmly on Putin’s side, against his own intelligence agencies, on the question of Russian interference in the 2016 election (which he reminded everyone he won by defeating Hillary Clinton). If there was any question who got the better of the private talks, it was clarified when Trump revealed that while Putin would not agree to extradition of those indicted for interference, he would consider allowing them to be interviewed by Russian authorities. In return, Russian would get U.S. help with “cases of interest to Moscow.”

Trump, a master dealmaker if there ever was one, was overjoyed.  Putin’s idea of letting Russians interview Russians was  “an incredible offer.”  Of course, Trump, added, “I don’t see any reason why” Russia would have interfered in the election in he first place. Maybe because two years ago, Trump invited the Russian to attempt to hack Clinton’s email server during the presidential campaign (which, if you forgot, he won.)

The reaction from Trump’s own party to his cozying up to Putin and denigrating (a) Mueller, (b) the Department of Justice and (c) the intelligence agencies was swift, as long as you were (a) out of office, (b) extremely ill or (c) not running for office again. The press conference was “the most serious mistake of his presidency,” according to former Speaker Newt Gingrich. When Newt is complaining that you went overboard, you really need to worry, The ailing Sen. John McCain, whose 7 years as a POW Trump once ridiculed, called the president’s statement “one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory.” Not to be outdone, John Brennan, Obama’s CIA director, asserted that Trump’s embrace of Putin was “nothing short of treasonous,” easily exceeding  “the threshold of ‘high crimes and misdemeanors’” which is the ground for you-know-what.

Which raises the issue: What should Democrats do? The answer depends on what the desired goal might be. The short-term response could be to draw up papers to indict Trump based on his statements in Helsinki, but that would be a major mistake. Democrats need self-discipline, because the goal here is to make it as easy as possible for moderates, independents, and even some Republicans to vote Democratic this fall, and Trump has provided a compelling rationale for doing so.

The message of House Democrats should be aimed at those swing voters and should go something like this:

“Republicans in Congress have squandered their constitutional responsibility to stand up to the president and provide institutional oversight. Unless you are comfortable with Trump continuing to wreak chaos at home and on the world stage, without a substantive peep from the legislative branch, we must have a Democratic Congress to ask reasonable questions. Clearly,  the Republican majority has instead decided it is too scared, or too  enamored of Trump to perform that responsibility. At a minimum, congressional committees should demand that Trump come before them, in closed session if necessary, and tell them exactly what transpired in his private tète-a-tète with Putin.”

For those worried that a Democratic majority would behave irresponsibly, consider that the only way Democrats will reach the majority is by winning more moderate swing seats. They will then have their own inner dynamic to avoid polarizing and extreme policies and instead serve as an appropriate constitutional check on a president badly in need of independent oversight. And this idea is not fanciful; when Democrats won a majority under President George W. Bush in 2006, they found common ground on a stimulus, on an energy bill and on the financial rescue despite the inherent challenges of divided government and a looming election.

Some Democrats would rather have the election be a referendum on the public’s embrace of hardline issues like impeachment, abolishing ICE and single payer health. Those ideas have little appeal to the voters Democrats must win to secure the swing seats that get them to 218 votes. They need to work hard to make sure that happens. One thing is for certain: Donald Trump is already doing his level best to create a Democratic majority.

A Democratic Tea Party?

The surprise defeat of NY Rep. Joe Crowley by non-traditional, anti-establishment newcomer Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has fueled extensive speculation about worrisome chasms opening within the Democratic Party as it struggles to reclaim a House majority.

As with the victories of other newcomers in a number of races around the country, some speculate that the incoming wave of ideological hard-liners – embracing aspirational goals like abolishing ICE, free college tuition and universal health care – might represent less the fresh blood Democrats needed to win the majority, and more a progressive version of the GOP’s absolutist Tea Party faction that became a persistent thorn in the side of Speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan.

Some observers draw an historical comparison to the 1974 wave election in which 49 Democrats won formerly Republican seats, and 76 new Democrats were elected overall. “It’s going to be … an extraordinary class, like the Watergate Class,” says Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), who cites “a hunger for generational change [and] for a new generation of leadership.” (Readers of DOMEocracy know that my recent book, “The Class of ’74,” addresses this topic in depth.)

Experienced political observers – and I acknowledge, some of the traditional ground rules may well be evolving in this volatile atmosphere – counsel caution about drawing too many conclusions from select races. The Crowley/Ocasio-Cortez race makes for terrific speculating, but the degree to which it is emblematic of national trends remains very much open to discussion. Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and other insurgents who will find themselves with voting cards in January 2019 will confront all of the same challenges to enactment of sweeping progressive legislation that progressives before them, like Barney Frank, Henry Waxman and George Miller, confronted when fashioning their own legislative initiatives: the diversity of views within the Democratic Caucus (let alone within the Democratic Party), institutional frustrations with the Senate and White House, addressing inflated expectations that are challenging to match with legislative output.

But in one respect, it is not difficult to predict one likely outcome of the November election, especially if the Democrats find themselves in the majority. The activists who become Members of the House are very unlikely to play the same role in the Democratic Caucus that the Tea Party insurgents have played in the Republican Conference. Indeed, the activists of ’18 are far more likely to resemble the 76 Democratic freshmen of the Class of ’74 than their 2010 and 2012 Republican counterparts.

The 2018 freshmen are likely to arrive with many aspirational policy agendas: immigration reform, affordable higher education, universal health care; as did their 1974 counterparts: ending the war in Vietnam, national health care, energy independence. They are likely to push their leadership on both procedural and policy changes, and to be told the House moves more slowly than some would like. We have already seen candidates voicing support for new leadership, as was the case in 1975, although today’s Democratic hierarchy is far more in alignment with the policy (and ideological) objectives of many of the potential freshmen than was true four decades ago. Still, as in 1974, there may be pressure for changes; Speaker Carl Albert was pushed aside at the end of the 94thCongress to make way for Tip O’Neill, and some freshmen are already targeting Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi and others in the top positions. The long-time Leader appears content to have candidates say whatever they like if it helps achieve their mutual goal: a House majority. ‘Just win, baby,’ she was recently quoted as telling her critics.

There may well be challenges to some of the current members who are expecting to become chairmen, many of whom have served long tenures and have long lines of frustrated, aspiring colleagues waiting to move up. In 1975, three chairmen were removed by the Caucus, with near unanimous support of the freshmen. All were either elderly, autocratic or grossly out of line with the ideology of the Caucus (or some combination of the three). It is far more difficult to identify such out-of-step committee leaders today. Ironically, despite the historic challenge to the seniority system in 1974, there remains substantial support for honoring the seniority system within the Democratic Caucus, especially among many minority members who remain skeptical they could win chairmanships were the system abandoned.  However, there could easily be pressure for term limits on chairmen, an idea floated several times in recent years.

In one very important respect, however, the Class of ’18 is likely to resemble the Class of ’74 more than those of ’10 or ’12. “You campaign in poetry,” it is said, “but you govern in prose.” The high-minded rhetoric of campaign speeches inevitably encounters the harsh reality of diverse viewpoints within the House.  The complexities of the legislative process – substantive, procedural, institutional – combine to produce work products with less grandeur than envisioned by idealistic candidates. When encountering this reality of the democratic process, the Tea Party and Freedom Caucus activists have regularly proven obdurate, standing on principles not shared by the vast majority of the Congress, and willing to obstruct the processes of government and sully the reputation of the institution in which they serve. Doing so presents few problems for these extreme conservatives who have few objectives that require an operational federal government.

The Democrats of 2018 are unlikely to assume such a stance because, like other Democrats, they both respect and need a credible, functional government to achieve their goals. Ultimately, few Democrats are prepared to shut down government or demean the House because only with a functional and respected (or something approaching it) government can they achieve the policies they promote. The freshmen of 2018 will certainly demand some changes and, like those of ’74, they may well throw some sharp elbows and annoy their veteran colleagues. But like the Class of ’74, they are far more likely to become dependable supporters of the achievable, not a Democratic version of the Tea Party nihilists.


Trump’s Katrina?

Sitting at my vintage roll-top desk in Santa Fe, NM, looking out over the Sangre de Cristo mountain range, I admit I might be losing some perspective about the political mood in Washington (or elsewhere, for that matter), but it is beginning to feel like things are changing, maybe even significantly.

It’s a recent sensation, maybe fueled by the calm and progressivism of the high desert. Certainly the four day drive here is not responsible: barreling through southern Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle … well, let’s just say there weren’t a lot of “I’m Still With Her” or “I Miss Barack Obama” bumper stickers to be seen.

But over the last few days, one gets the decided impression that the wheels are coming off the Trump limousine, that the chaotic, volcanic, mean-spiritedness of this accidental president and his crazed band of acolytes is taking too costly a toll on the nation’s patience and conscience. The issue isn’t so much liberal versus conservative or Democrats versus Republicans, but rather a growing realization that an unhinged and dangerous autocrat is putting our political and moral traditions and institutions at risk, and that even if one shares some of his policy objectives (which morph from hour to hour, tweet to tweet), the price of vesting power in so unpredictable and venal a narcissist is beyond responsibility.

The chaos over the forced separation of families and the incarceration of thousands of children, many under one year of age, has altered the perception of Trump’s competence as a president and decency as a human being. People are enraged and moved to action. One on-line effort to raise $1,500 to support legal assistance for separated families has raised $15,000,000 at last count.

When the histories of this bizarre chapter of our national story are written, the Trump presidency will likely stand out as a moment of madness fueled by mass (and largely racist and nativist fueled) resentment. Beyond the incarceration policy itself; beyond the brazen lying about whether it was mandated or even allowed by earlier law; beyond even Melania’s incomprehensible decision to select, from her gargantuan wardrobe, a jacket emblazoned with “I really don’t care. Do U?,” while visiting jailed toddlers, one feels a growing national perception that something malicious and dangerous is afoot.

Any hopefulness is tempered by two interesting news stories that provide conflicting signs of where public opinion rests, giving pause to any sense of our having turned a corner towards a brighter, more compassionate post-November world.

On the one hand, a Gallup poll published on June 21 (which in so many ways wasthe longest day of 2018), reports that 75% of Americans, a record high, believe that immigration is a good thing for the U.S., up from 71% last year. The high support is registered across all party groups. If asked about “legal” immigration, the number rises to 84%. What seems notable is the high level of support for immigration without qualification.

Indeed, just 19% of those polled are negative about immigration, and just 29% — a record low — think rates of immigration should be decreased, a 6 point drop from 2017 despite Trump’s incessant vilification of immigrants. In fact, 28% think levels should be increased.

Before Trump critics and especially Democratic political operatives get too optimistic about the political calculus of these findings, it needs to be noted that some recent polls give Trump his highest approval rating since becoming president, pretty close to the 45.9% of the popular vote he received in 2016. That fact alone is remarkable. Any other president, presiding over a growing economy, would have registered gains in popularity during the first one and a half years in office. But the steady support, not to mention the obsequious and slavish succumbing to Trump by congressional Republicans, reflects the power of his continued strength among base GOP voters who may well be highly motivated to get to the voting booths this fall. The key variable for the Fall congressional elections, in addition to the get-out-the-vote performance of Democratic voters like minorities and youth, will be the voting decisions of more moderate Republicans. Especially critical votes will come from suburban women and independents who might be prepared to vote Democratic to check Trump, if not embrace the Democratic agenda.

Still, one had to be mystified that despite the daily tirades, tweets, meltdowns, mis-steps and malevolent, punitive policies, Trump retains the support of 45% of voters. What signal does that enduring support send to an egomaniac who wrings signs of devoted approval out of the faintest glimmer of approval?

I really don’t get it. Do you?

Trump’s State Sponsored Child Abuse

Having been the main congressional staff person behind the drafting and passage of a major federal child welfare law in 1980, I would have to say that Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein, the Jordanian diplomat who serves as the United Nations high commissioner for human rights, has got it about right. Donald Trump’s policy of wrenching children from their parents and incarcerating (there isn’t really a better or more accurate term) them in caged institutions is about as close to “government sanctioned child abuse.” Al-Hussein is borrowing the terminology from the American Association of Pediatrics. As child psychologist researchers have documented, the developmental impacts of such early trauma can be devastating.

It is difficult to describe how many ways the Trump policy violates federal law, international standards, professional ethics and basic human decency. If Trump or Congress, or both, fail to swiftly bring this Dickensian policy to a close, as many as 30,000 children could be separated from their parents and guardians by the end of the summer, according to one California congressman.

Trump’s blatant and brazen lies about the origins of the policy creating family separation would, in any other administration, be sufficient for people to question the president’s competence, let alone morality. “They could be murderers and thieves and so much else,” Trump warns about undocumented entrants. Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, he ridiculously charges, want “open borders,” oppose tightening entry procedures, and “came out in favor of MS-13,” the murderous gang. Why Pelosi would go into a room with this maniac is almost impossible to imagine.

There is no law mandating that children be separated from their families. That didn’t stop Trump’s prevaricating press secretarySarah Huckabee Sanderswho fatuously declared last week, “It’s the law, and that’s what the law states.”Sanders is not alone among White House lackeys willing to castigate refugees and asylum seekers. “Parents who entered illegally are by definition criminals,” said Kirstjen Nielsen, the secretary of homeland security, who is doubtless anxious to prove her toughness and so avoid another humiliating drubbing by Trump in front of the rest of the Cabinet. “By entering our country illegally, often in dangerous circumstances, illegal immigrants have put their children at risk.” Thanks to Trump’s policies, that observation is indubitable. Indeed, Trump’s entire style of governing (pardon the use of the word), whether with respect to immigration, health care, North Korea or deficit creation, seems to be the purposeful creation of crises he then calls upon others to solve.

Sanders is simply re-enforcing the hysteria of the President who irrationally blames Democrats for refusing to change a policy they had no role whatsoever in creating. Indeed, Democrats passed a 2008 law, signed by George W. Bush, thatlimits the time certain unaccompanied minors can be held in detention to 72 hours, a restriction flagrantly  violated by the Trump detention order. Under federal foster care law, children must be strictly monitored with periodic updates of their placements, which must be in the least restrictive setting available. By contrast, according to McClatchy reporters, “U.S. officials have lost track of nearly 6,000 unaccompanied minor kids.” Emphasis added, as if it needs to be.

Trump and his enablers are using the children as hostages, hoping to force Senate Democrats (they don’t need any in the House) to sign off on a punitive and costly border enforcement policy that includes a multi-billion dollar wall that Trump had promised taxpayers would be fully funded by Mexico. Similarly, Trump needlessly but intentionally created a DACA crisis in hopes of provoking Congress to pass an ill-conceived immigration-border enforcement statute. Actually, as he proved in Tuesday’s meeting with congressional Republicans, Trump doesn’t care what proposal is actually approved; he simply wants a bill passed that he can sign with that outsized, ego-fueled Sharpie signature, and he is willing to rip kids away from their parents, put them in cages, and lock them up to achieve that goal.

Last week, Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon took himself down to one of the detention camps and demanded entry. The press-savvy thugs who ran the facility cleverly decided to bar him from inspecting facilities paid for by U.S. taxpayers. Inexplicably, Merkley left, but this week, he and other Democratic legislators wisely returned to the detention camps this week to demand the release of the children. Meanwhile, back in Washington, some Republicans are squirming over the horrifying news coverage and are urging the president to alter his course, less because of concern about the zero-tolerance policy than its impact on their elections and potential control of the House.

Although the scenes of terrified children hugging their parents’ legs and crying uncontrollably, and pictures of the huge cages holding children’s beds, have shocked the world, Democrats should not assume this issue is certain to win them broad voter support. This is precisely the kind of volatile issue that Trump has shown a talent for exploiting by wrapping himself in the flag (he actually hugged one this week) and casting himself as defender of the border. Democrats need to be careful not to be pigeonholed as soft on unauthorized entries, while unqualifiedly voicing their outrage at the Trump policy. Assuming the votes of middle of the road voters will be decided on the child detention policy may well prove illusory.

Let’s be clear: the responsibility here rests with congressional Republicans. All the sympathetic statements emanating from their hypocritical mouths don’t mean a thing if they can’t find the courage to stand up to Trump, end the child separation policy and make DACA a permanent policy. Pretending that these self-created crises can only be resolved by folding them into controversial immigration policy that cannot receive 60 votes is just playing games. The children in the detention centers should be the ones playing games, not spineless legislators.

Back in 1980, when we passed the Child Welfare and Adoption Assistance Act, we called the policy of losing children in indeterminate foster placements “state sponsored child abuse.” Here we are, four decades later, and the President of the United States smugly touts a   policy he fashioned as essential to our national security. Al-Hussein has it right – this is government sanctioned child abuse — but Trump couldn’t care less about children or human rights. Just to make the point perfectly clear, on Tuesday, Trump quit the UN Human Rights Council.